Ukraine Casualties v. Russian Territory Gained /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

Over the past two months, Russia has rapidly expanded its territorial gains in Ukraine—possibly up to 900–1,000 sq km in a single month, a wartime record. Analysts say Russia’s primary objective is not territory but demilitarization: destroying Ukraine’s military potential, effectively wiping out the equivalent of the Ukrainian army two or three times over, causing severe personnel losses and degrading infrastructure, economy, and air defenses. This strategy of destroying capacity first allows Russia to capture territory more easily later in a single blow. With massive casualties, desertions, and shrinking manpower, analysts argue Ukraine may soon be unable to continue the war, regardless of political desires in Kyiv. The battlefield trend has revived talk of a 28‑point U.S.-led peace plan, reportedly crafted by Secretary of State Witkoff and Jared Kushner, not by Russia. U.S. hawks argue that Putin is only feigning interest in negotiations to ease upcoming sanctions. Russian officials say they’re willing to review the proposal but insist their core conditions remain unchanged: Ukraine must withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and abandon NATO membership. Europe opposes negotiations under these terms and has pressured Zelensky not to engage, as it did with earlier U.S.–Russia mediation attempts in 2025. Inside Russia, polling shows growing fatigue with the war, giving Putin a modest incentive to consider compromise. One idea discussed between Trump and Putin is using the current front line—not full political borders—as the de facto boundary in the southern oblasts. Analysts stress details are unclear and not publicly confirmed. Russian military leaders insist they will not give back any southern oblasts and will simply take them all militarily if the deal demands territorial concessions. Finally, observers note that the U.S. peace plan does not address “denazification,” a condition Russia listed in 2024, and it remains unclear whether Moscow would drop or soften this requirement in a final settlement.