英国首相访华｜对冲张又侠案｜UK Prime Minister Visits China | A Counterbalance to the Zhang Youxia Case

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成为此频道的会员即可获享以下福利： 英国首相访华｜对冲张又侠案｜UK Prime Minister Visits China | A Counterbalance to the Zhang Youxia Case 在张又侠案爆发后，习近平安排了一系列高密度外事活动。外事活动频率明显高于过往，以此显示他权力目前仍然稳固的信号。今天我们谈的就是一个表面看是外交、实际上是生死权力游戏的真实故事： 英国首相访华，能给中国带来什么。 从官方的叙事来看，这次英国首相斯塔默访华的实际成果，并不在于达成了多少具体协议，而在于完成了一次低调但明确的关系止跌：英国在英美关系不确定性上升的背景下，选择重新与中国恢复高层接触，以经贸为切入口为自身寻找战略回旋空间；斯塔默刻意回避敏感议题、强调务实主义，既向国内商界释放“可以重新布局中国市场”的信号，也向北京传递“英国不再情绪化对抗”的姿态；而中国则借此进一步塑造自身在动荡国际环境中的“稳定合作者”形象——双方都没有跨出关键一步，但都为未来留下了可操作的余地。 事实真的是这样吗？我先说判断，而且这个判断必须放在最前面—— 在老杜看来，英国首相的这次受邀来访，救不了中国经济，也改变不了中西方结构性对抗现实，可谓效果有限，形式大于内容。它真正稳住的，是习近平在张又侠案后，在军权危机中的统治安全。也就是，成为了风雨飘摇的习近平政权的稳定锚。 如果你听懂了这一句话，后面的逻辑就全部顺了。 After the Zhang Youxia case broke out, Xi Jinping arranged a series of high-density diplomatic activities. The frequency of these foreign affairs events was noticeably higher than before, intended to signal that his power remains stable. Today, we’re discussing a story that on the surface appears to be about diplomacy, but in reality is a life-and-death power struggle: The UK Prime Minister’s visit to China—what can it really bring to China? From the official narrative, the real outcome of UK Prime Minister Starmer’s visit lies not in how many concrete agreements were reached, but in achieving a quiet yet clear halt in the deterioration of relations: in the context of rising uncertainty in UK–US relations, the UK has chosen to reestablish high-level contact with China, using trade and economy as an entry point to create strategic maneuvering space for itself; Starmer deliberately avoided sensitive topics and emphasized pragmatism, sending a signal to domestic business circles that “it’s possible to re-engage with the Chinese market,” while also conveying to Beijing a posture that “Britain will no longer engage in emotional confrontation.” China, in turn, used this as an opportunity to further shape its image as a “stable partner” in a turbulent international environment—neither side took a decisive step forward, but both left room for future maneuvering. But is that really the truth? Let me first state the conclusion—this must come first: In Lao Du’s view, this invitation for the British Prime Minister to visit cannot rescue the Chinese economy, nor can it alter the structural confrontation between China and the West; its effect is limited, form over substance. What it truly stabilizes is Xi Jinping’s grip on power after the Zhang Youxia case, amid a crisis in military authority. In other words, it has become an anchor of stability for Xi Jinping’s embattled regime. If you understand that sentence, the rest of the logic falls into place.