习近平大打？中打？小打？台海风云突变｜Xi Jinping: Major Strike? Moderate Strike? Minor Strike?

Xi Jinping’s 2025 New Year address contained a stark statement that the blood of compatriots on both sides of the Strait is thicker than water, signalling a shift from vague deterrence to a decisive push for reunification. Almost immediately, the Eastern Theater Command launched live‑fire exercises around Taiwan, illustrating a coordinated use of rhetoric and military pressure. The speech and drills suggest Beijing’s policy has moved from long‑term united front tactics to a time‑bound political mandate, with Xi treating reunification as a mission that must be completed within his term. Insider reports indicate that after the 20th Party Congress, Xi ordered all armed forces to prepare for a military takeover of Taiwan, originally slated for the end of 2026 but reportedly completed by the end of 2025, implying that the necessary readiness has been achieved in his view. These developments, coupled with personal statements from former officials, paint a picture of a high‑level decision that could trigger a significant escalation in cross‑strait relations.