Правда о “мирном плане” для Украины: анализ RAND Corporation /№1071/ Швец

00:00 — The video opens by explaining why now is the right time to talk about a "peace plan" for Ukraine. 01:05 — It introduces the RAND Corporation, outlining why their findings are critical. 02:40 — The main conclusion is that a poorly designed cease‑fire merely postpones the next phase of war. 04:10 — The discussion turns to the pressure of "faster, any cost" from Washington and Moscow. 06:45 — An unexpected signal from the MAGA environment suggests that concessions to Moscow would be a gift to China. 08:50 — The current position of Putin is described as one of desperation rather than strength. 11:40 — The Kremlin's fear of a "bad peace" is highlighted as being as great as its fear of war. 13:30 — Trump’s real goal is revealed: a quick deal without commitments, driven by a desire for a "deal". 16:10 — The illusion of a "Russian Eldorado" for American business is critiqued. 19:00 — The necessity of a long‑term peace is argued to be relevant only for Ukraine and Europe. 21:30 — The Minsk error is identified as a policy mistake rather than an expert assessment. 24:00 — The current negotiators are named and the problem they pose is explained. 27:10 — Seven key recommendations from RAND are presented. 29:00 — The division between geopolitics and cease‑fire is discussed. 31:30 — The importance of a demilitarised zone is explained. 34:00 — Technological control is proposed as an alternative to thousands of soldiers. 36:30 — The role of a third party is examined, stressing that without the US nothing works. 39:10 — The most dangerous mine is identified: the lack of sustained pressure on Russia. 42:00 — The necessity of ratification and legal form is emphasized. 45:00 — The danger of "gentlemanly agreements" is warned. 48:00 — The main lesson from RAND is that peace must be inconvenient for the aggressor. 50:20 — The final conclusion states what Ukraine and Europe must demand now.