Андрей Безруков 251008 – Лекция «Стратегическое прогнозирование: от сигналов к решениям»

During the lecture, the speaker introduced the concept of strategic forecasting, linking signals to decisions, and explored how technological shifts, economic crises, and AI integration drive global change. At 00:00 the session opened with an introduction to historical technological shifts; at 03:43 the discussion moved to global conflicts and techno‑economic blocks; at 06:41 the focus shifted to structural collapse and economic crisis; at 08:11 the conversation turned to technology racing in the US and China; at 12:19 the lecture covered strategic planning and forecasting; at 22:52 the methodology for future forecasting was examined; at 30:09 the scenario analysis and experience of Royal Dutch Shell were discussed; at 37:03 the global practices of strategic forecasting were highlighted; at 39:55 the history of Soviet system planning and forecasting was reviewed; at 45:08 the creation of future space and event format was addressed; at 49:06 the integration of AI into future vision was explored; at 52:11 the long‑term strategic goal setting was considered; at 54:47 the role of the state in technological development was examined; at 56:07 the global examples of strategic management were presented; at 01:01:25 the role of imagination and scenario as a tool for thinking was explored; at 01:02:50 the concept of black swan and system resilience was discussed; at 01:06:57 the strategic planning and goal setting in Russia was addressed; at 01:13:12 the civilization and national identity were examined; at 01:18:37 the role of AI and talent in Russia was considered; at 01:23:06 the regional development and bureaucracy challenges were discussed; at 01:27:32 the experience of the US and challenges of strategic forecasting were examined; at 01:31:42 the cyclical development of China and its implications for Russia were discussed. Key insights included the role of technological momentum as a driver of global change, the importance of building large‑scale economic space, the necessity of aligning Russia with India, Iran, and Southeast Asian countries, the use of forecasting as a key tool for future management, the critical integration of strategic forecasting into state governance, the prioritization of scientific investment, and the preparation for a "black swan" scenario.