Арестович: В чем просчитался Трамп? @borovonovodvo

00:00 The discussion begins with Israel's actions against Iran's nuclear program in the context of US relations, the role of Iranian opposition, and analogies with Ukraine. 03:04 Ukraine and the EU are examined as failed examples of responding to political crises, with Russia's policy aimed at problematizing NATO's Article 5. 07:00 The 'bear trap' is discussed: is the West ready to fight for peripheral NATO countries and use military force globally? 10:20 The main reason for the failure of Ukraine, Europe, and the US compared to Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan is the inability to define strategic goals regarding Russia. 12:20 General goals of Putin for Ukraine and the Baltics (restoring the USSR). 15:09 Low level of expertise in Zelensky's team, choosing decisions that give immediate media or rating effect. 20:23 Who are the directors of action in Ukraine? Roles of Zelensky and Yermak. 23:40 Trump's mistake in assessing the possibility of stopping the war in Ukraine. 29:03 Zelensky and Yermak bet on organizational and media work against Trump – pageantry over rationality. 33:20 KGB agent network in Ukraine. Russia's goals include splitting Ukraine into three parts: western, central (neutral like Belarus), and eastern/southern (Novorossiya under Russia). 37:32 Key Russian goals now: the Baltics, the Baltic Sea, and Ukraine. A 10-15 year program to restore the 'Union of three Slavic nations'. 39:32 Underestimation by the West of Kremlin and Ukraine's motivation. 41:40 Why Europeans and Britons do not strengthen their influence? The EU aims to maintain fundamental economic relations with the Kremlin; Britons confront the emergence of a new Russian empire. 48:25 Britain and the EU jointly oppose Trump. The fragmented collective West: two Americas, several Britains, several Europeans pursuing different goals. 51:05 No direct armed confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation will occur. 52:27 Russia is not a superpower, but open use of armed force, up to direct threat of nuclear war, is its trump card. 57:03 The factor of China: is Moscow a proxy force of China militarily? China has sided with Russia. Similar situation between Israel and the US regarding Iran. Israel bombs, and Trump says, 'I was just offering to negotiate.'