IMF Signals There’s Something MASSIVE Coming - DUMP The US Dollar Now!

IMF Signals There’s Something MASSIVE Coming - DUMP The US Dollar Now!12:57

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Debacle Economics

Published at:

7/8/2024

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The IMF has raised the alarm about the US dollar. What could this mean for the future of the US economy?

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Speaker 1

now we look at whether the dollar is losing its global dominance international monetary funds data reveals that us dollars dominance as the world's primary reserve currency is slowly eroding while it remains the most widely held reserve currency the share has been declining for the past two decades and this trend continues despite recent strength in the dollar itself central banks are diversifying their results

Turning to non-traditional currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Chinese yuan, this shift is due to the desire for yield, the benefits of diversification and the ease with which these funds can be traded due to new digital technologies.

Speaker 2

In the hallowed halls of global finance, a storm is brewing that threatens to upend the very foundations of the world economy.

The once mighty US dollar, long the bedrock of international trade and finance, is teetering on the brink of collapse, sending shockwaves through markets and leaving policymakers scrambling for solutions.

This is not a distant threat or a hypothetical scenario, but a clear and present danger that could reshape the global economic landscape for generations to come.

The numbers,

paint a stark and sobering picture of the dollar's decline.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund , the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 59% in the fourth quarter of 2020, its lowest level in 25 years.

This represents a significant drop from its peak of 71% in 1999 and a continuation of a trend that has seen the dollar's dominance steadily erode over the past two decades.

The implications of this decline are far-reaching, affecting everything from international trade to global investment flows.

Even more alarming is the rapid rise of alternative currencies, particularly the Chinese Yuan.

In 2024, the Yuan share of global payments reached a record high of 4.69%, according to SWIFT, the Global Financial Messaging System.

While this may seem small compared to the dollar's share, it represents a significant increase from just 3.2% in 2022.

and highlights the growing challenge to U.S. monetary hegemony.

As China continues to expand its economic influence, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Project, the yuan's role in international finance is likely to grow further, potentially at the dollar's expense.

A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has highlighted the narratives around declining dollar shares in official reserves and increasing roles for gold holdings by central banks.

The Fed now admits that some countries are moving to gold with a population of 3 billion, representing 37.5% of the global population, making this move and adopting new monetary policy.

The sheer scale of this decline has led many international observers to question whether

United States can maintain its position as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency.

In this video, we'll delve into the intricate dynamics of the US dollar's decline, exploring the political, historical, and political factors, including the rise of alternative currencies and increasing reliance on gold, that have contributed to this seismic shift.

To understand the gravity of this situation, it's essential to look at the role of the International Monetary Fund or IMF in the global financial system.

The IMF, established in 1944 as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, is an international organization tasked with promoting global monetary cooperation, securing financial stability, facilitating international trade, and fostering sustainable economic growth.

With 190 member countries, the IMF plays a crucial role in monitoring global economic trends and providing policy recommendations to governments and central banks around the world.

The IMF's warning about the decline of the US dollar carries significant weight in the international financial community.

In its World Economic Outlook report published in October 2022, the IMF highlighted several key factors contributing to the dollar's waning dominance.

One of the primary concerns is the erosion of US economic dominance relative to emerging economies, particularly China.

As these countries continue to grow at a faster pace than the United States, the relative economic weight of the US in the global economy is diminishing.

This naturally leads to a reduced demand for dollars in international trade and finance.

The IMF has also pointed to the persistent US trade deficits as a major factor in the dollar's decline.

The United States has been running large trade deficits for decades, which has led to an accumulation of dollars in foreign hands.

This oversupply of dollars in the global market puts downward pressure on its value and reduces its attractiveness as a reserve currency.

Day to day, most Americans are likely unaware of the economic and political

power that goes with being the world's unit of account.

Currently, more than half of world trade, from oil and gold to cars and smartphones, is in US dollars, with the Euro accounting for around 30% and all other currencies making up the balance.

As a result of this dominance, the US is the only country on the planet that can pay its foreign debt in its own currency.

This gives both the US government and American companies tremendous leeway in international trade and finance.

However, if policymakers push the U.S. into high debt, the dollar would likely lose its position as the international unit of account, forcing the government and companies to pay their international bills in another currency.

In 2021, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services reached a record high of $859.1 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This represents an increase of 27 percent from 2020 and underscores the ongoing challenges facing the U.S. economy.

And even more concerning, in January 2023, the mounting US national debt reached a staggering $31.4 trillion.

This represents more than 120% of the country's gross domestic product, a level not seen since World War II.

As the debt burden continues to grow, it raises serious questions about the long-term sustainability of US fiscal policy and the future value of the dollar.

Another key concern highlighted by the IMF is the impact of US fiscal and monetary policy on the dollar's stability.

The massive expansion of the US money supply in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the country's growing national debt, has raised concerns about the long-term stability of the currency.

currency.

In 2023, the M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, was 39% higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.

In other words, the amount of liquidity in the system is still significantly elevated, and too much money chasing too few goods and services can spell inflation.

This unprecedented expansion has raised fears of long-term inflation and currency devaluation.

U.S. M2 money stock refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households, such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.

The U.S. M2 money stock is critical in understanding and forecasting the U.S.'s money supply, inflation, and interest rates.

US empty money supply is currently at 20.87 trillion, up from 20.84 trillion last month and up from 20.74 trillion one year ago.

This is a change of 0.12% from the previous month and 0.59% from one year ago.

Historically, when the global money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a dramatic increase in prices of goods and services.

not so much of a good news for Americans already going through a vicious cycle.

The IMF has also warned about the potential impact of digital currencies on the dollar's dominance.

The emergence of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, poses a significant threat to the dollar's role in international payments.

China's development of the digital yuan in particular has been seen as a potential challenge to the dollar's role in global trade.

As of 2023, more than 80% of central banks worldwide are actively researching or piloting CBDCs, according to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements.

This shift towards digital currencies could fundamentally reshape the global financial landscape in ways that further erode the dollar's position.

Bitcoin, for instance, has exploded into 2024, powered by the arrival of a fleet of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, on Wall Street.

The premier coin's price has soared nearer to its all-time high of $64,380 per Bitcoin, recovering from a 2022 crash that Goldman Sachs' crypto lead thinks could signal a Bitcoin price turning point.

Meanwhile, Ethereum, XRP, and other major coins are braced for a Wall Street bombshell,

Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in the dollar's decline, according to the IMF.

Increasing tensions between the United States and other major powers, particularly China and Russia, have led some countries to seek alternatives to the dollar-based financial system.

This de-dollarization trend has been accelerated by US sanctions policies, which have incentivized countries to reduce their reliance on the dollar to avoid potential economic retaliation.

For example, according to the Russian Central Bank, Russia has significantly reduced its dollar holdings in recent years, with the share of dollars to just 16% in 2021.

For the average American, the implications of a declining dollar are far-reaching and potentially devastating.

One of the most immediate impacts would be a reduction in purchasing power, particularly for imported goods.

As the value of the dollar declines relative to other currencies, Americans will find that their money buys less in international markets.

higher prices for a wide range of consumer goods, from electronics to clothing to automobiles.

According to a World Bank study, a dollar depreciation typically leads to a 3-4% increase in consumer prices over the long term.

The impact on gasoline prices is particularly noteworthy as oil is priced in dollars on international markets.

When the dollar index fell by 13% between March 2020 and January 2021, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose from $2 to $2.40 per gallon.

This direct relationship between the dollar's value and fuel prices means that a further decline in the currency could lead to significant increases in transportation costs for both consumers and businesses.

The decline of the dollar could also lead to higher interest rates, as the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates to maintain foreign demand for dollars and US Treasury securities.

This would make borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses alike, potentially slowing economic growth and job creation.

For example, if mortgage rates were to rise from their current average of around 3% to 5%, it would increase the monthly payment on a $300,000 home loan by nearly $400.

Such an increase could have a significant impact on the housing market and the broader economy.

Inflation is another major concern associated with a declining dollar.

As the cost of imported goods rises, it can lead to higher overall inflation rates.

The Consumer Price Index or CPI has already risen by 6.2% over the 12 months ending October 2021, the highest annual increase in over 30 years.

A further weakening of the dollar could exacerbate this trend, creating a vicious cycle as higher inflation erodes the value of the dollar further, leading to even more inflation.

The job market could also be significantly impacted by a declining dollar.

If the currency's weakness leads to a broader economic slowdown, it could result in job losses across various sectors of the economy.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the unemployment rate in the United States rose from 5% to a peak of 10%.

representing a loss of over 8 million jobs.

While the circumstances of that crisis were different, it illustrates the potential scale of job losses that could occur in a severe economic downturn triggered by a collapse in confidence in the dollar.

Beyond these immediate economic impacts, the decline of the dollar could have profound implications for America's global influence.

As the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency diminishes, so too does America's ability to protect economic and political power on the global stage.

This could have far-reaching consequences for US foreign policy and national security, potentially altering long-standing geopolitical relationships and alliances.

There's no doubt that the Pandora's box of currency devaluation is now open in the States, and the consequences are already beginning to unfold.

As the dollar weakens, America's negotiating power and ability to leverage financial mechanisms and international diplomacy will be significantly challenged.

The decline is insidiously leading to a seismic shift that might herald one of the biggest economic downfalls of all time if the U.S. doesn't seek to bolster its financial resilience, invest in innovation and infrastructure, and engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain its influence on the global stage.

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