Vanguard's Sends HUGE WARNING to America, Sell Your Stocks Now!

Vanguard's Sends HUGE WARNING to America, Sell Your Stocks Now!12:04

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Debacle Economics

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6/24/2024

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In the hallowed halls of Wall Street, a chilling prophecy has emerged, sending shockwaves through the financial world and casting a dark shadow over the future of the American economy.

Vanguard, one of the world's most respected and influential investment firms, has issued a dire warning about the stock market's prospects for the next decade, and the implications are nothing short of petrifying.

the numbers are as sobering as they are incontrovertible.

According to Vanguard's 2023 economic and market outlook, the firm expects U.S. equities to deliver annualized returns of just 3.5% to 5.5% over the next 10 years, a far cry from the double-digit gains that investors have come to expect in recent years.

This grim forecast is based on a range of factors, from slowing economic growth and rising interest rates to elevated elevations and geopolitical uncertainty.

To put this into perspective, consider that the S&P 500, the benchmark index for the US stock market, has delivered annualized returns of 14.7% over the past decade, powered by a combination of robust economic growth, low interest rates, and surging corporate profits.

If Vanguard's projections prove accurate, investors can expect to see their returns cut by more than half in the coming years, a stunning reversal of fortune that could have profound implications for the wealth and financial security of millions of Americans.

Measured by the Consumer Price Index, services prices were 5.3% higher on a year-over-year basis in March.

Headline inflation advanced 3.5% year-over-year.

Experts expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE Index, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, to record full-year 2024 inflation of about 2.6%.

As the 2024 calendar unfolds, investor concerns about the market and economic disasters are in the rearview mirror.

Fresh memories of 2023's bull market and resilient economy keep investors' spirits high as we return to sound money in 2024.

Investor sentiment seems to be turning back the clock to pre-pandemic times.

In this video, we will delve into the grim reality of Vanguard's harrowing prediction and explore the nightmarish implications for the US stock market and the broader economy.

The American economy has been hanging on a balance for a while now, and Vanguard's recent prediction exacerbates the existing uncertainties.

The prospect of a stock market decline introduces a myriad of challenges that could ripple through various facets of the economy.

If brought to fruition, such prospects will eviscerate the wealth of millions, from the specter of slowing economic growth and rising interest rates to the looming threat of geopolitical chaos and market volatility.

But who exactly is Vanguard, and why should we take their warnings so seriously?

Founded in 1975 by the legendary investor John C. Bogle, Vanguard is one of the world's largest and most respected investment management firms with over $7.5 trillion in assets under management as of 2023.

The firm is known for its low-cost, index-based approach to investing, which has helped millions of investors build wealth and achieve their financial goals over the years.

What sets Vanguard apart from other investment firms is its unique ownership structure.

Unlike most companies, which are owned by shareholders or private investors, Vanguard is owned by its own funds, which in turn are owned by their shareholders.

This means that Vanguard's interests are aligned with those of its clients, and the firm has a strong incentive to keep costs low and deliver strong long-term returns.

Vanguard's approach to investing is based on a few simple principles.

The firm believes in diversification, which means spreading investments across a wide range of asset classes and securities to minimize risk.

It also believes in keeping costs low, which is why Vanguard's funds typically have some of the lowest expense ratios in the industry.

And finally, Vanguard believes in taking a long-term view, which means focusing on the big

picture and avoiding short-term market fluctuations.

Given Vanguard's track record and reputation, it's no surprise that the firm's latest market outlook has sent shockwaves through the investment community.

So, what exactly is behind the firm's gloomy forecast for the US stock market?

One of the key factors is slowing economic growth.

After years of robust expansion, the US economy is showing signs of cooling off, with GDP growth slowing from 5.9% in 2021 to just 2.1% in 2022.

Vanguard expects this trend to continue in the coming years with annual GDP growth averaging just 2.0% to 2.5% over the next decade.

This is well below the 3.19% growth rates that the U.S. economy has historically averaged, suggesting that corporate profits will be harder to come by in the years ahead.

Another factor is rising interest rates.

After years of ultra-low rates, the Federal Reserve has begun to normalize monetary policy, raising interest rates to keep inflation in check and preventing the economy from overheating.

While this is a necessary step, it also means that borrowing costs will be higher for companies and consumers alike, which will put a

damper on economic activity and corporate profits.

Valuations are also a concern.

After years of strong gains, the US stock market is trading at historically high levels, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio hovering around 25 as of early 2023.

This is well above the historical average of around 16, and it suggests that stocks may be overvalued and due for a correction in the

years.

Finally, there are a range of geopolitical risks that could weigh on the stock market in the years ahead.

From trade tensions with China to political instability in Europe and the Middle East, there are plenty of flashpoints that could roil global markets and dampen investor sentiment.

does all this mean for the average American investor?

The implications are sobering, to say the least.

First and foremost, a prolonged period of low returns could have a devastating impact on retirement savings.

According to a 2022 report by the National Institute on Retirement Security, the median retirement account balance for American households nearing retirement, ages 55 to 64, is just $134,000.

If Vanguard's projections prove accurate,

at these households could see their nest eggs grow by just $40,000 to $70,000 over the next decade, hardly enough to fund a comfortable retirement.

The risks are particularly acute for younger workers who have a longer time horizon and more to lose from a prolonged period of low returns.

According to a 2023 report by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, a 35-year-old worker who saves 10% of their income each year and invests in a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds

can expect to replace just 28% of their pre-retirement income if Vanguard's projections prove accurate.

This is well below the 70% replacement rate that is typically recommended by financial advisors.

Beyond the direct impact of retirement savings, a prolonged period of low returns could also have broader economic consequences.

When stock prices are rising and investors are feeling confident, they are more likely to spend money and invest in new businesses, which can help drive economic growth and create jobs.

However, when stock prices are stagnant or falling, investors may become more cautious and pull back on spending, which can lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

This is particularly concerning given the current state of the US economy.

While the US job market has remained relatively strong in recent years, wage growth has been tepid, and many Americans are still struggling to make ends meet.

If the stock market enters a prolonged slump, it could exacerbate these challenges and lead to a vicious cycle of declining consumer spending, rising unemployment, and slowing economic growth.

The impact on public finances could also be significant.

Many state and local governments rely on pension funds to

pay for their retirement benefits of their employees, and these funds are heavily invested in the stock market.

If returns are lower than expected, it could put pressure on already strained budgets and force policymakers to make difficult choices about cutting services or raising taxes.

the risk of financial market volatility.

When stock prices are rising and investors are feeling confident, markets tend to be relatively stable.

But when prices are falling and uncertainty is high, markets can become more volatile, with sharp swings in either direction.

This can create a sense of fear and panic among investors, leading to further selling pressure and exacerbating the downturn.

Companies may respond to declining stock prices by cutting costs, often reducing their workforce.

This can lead to higher unemployment rates and reduce income for households.

A sluggish stock market can have a direct impact on unemployment rates.

When stock prices are stagnant or declining, companies may become more hesitant to invest in expansion and hiring.

This can lead to a slowdown in job creation and even layoffs as businesses look to cut costs.

According to a 2022 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a 20% decline in the stock market is associated with a 0.2 to 3.7 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate over the following year.

Moreover, a weak stock market can also have indirect effects on employment by damaging consumer confidence and spending.

As investors see their portfolios lose value, they may become more cautious about their finances, reducing their consumption of goods and services.

This can create a ripple effect throughout the economy, leading to further job losses in sectors such as retail, hospitality and entertainment.

Another insidious impact this has on consumer behavior is risk aversion.

When stock market returns are lackluster, investors may become increasingly risk-averse, opting to shift their assets to safer investments such as bonds or cash.

This flight to safety can further depress stock prices and reduce capital for business investment.

According to a 2024 survey by the American Association of Individual Investors or the AAII,

Nearly 40% of respondents said they would be more likely to invest in bonds or cash equivalents if the stock market returns remained low over the next decade.

This risk aversion can have significant consequences for the broader economy.

When businesses struggle to access capital, they may be forced to scale back their operations, delay expansion plans, or even shut down entirely.

This can lead to a vicious cycle of declining investment, slowing economic growth, and rising unemployment.

The US stock market is not an isolated entity.

It is deeply interconnected with global financial markets and economies.

A prolonged period of low returns in the US can have ripple effects around the world, particularly in countries that rely heavily on American investment and trade.

Moreover, a weak U.S. stock market can also exacerbate existing global economic challenges, such as trade tensions, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks.

For example, if the U.S. economy weakens and the dollar loses value, it could make American exports more competitive and strain the economies of countries that rely on exports to the U.S.

The World Bank found that a 1% depreciation in the U.S. dollar is associated with a 0.6 percentage point decline in GDP growth for emerging market economies over the following year.

Perhaps most worryingly, a prolonged period of low stock market returns can increase the risk of a broader economic recession.

When stock prices are falling and investor confidence is low, it can create a self-fulfilling prophecy of declining spending, investing, and hiring.

This can lead to a downward spiral of economic activity as businesses and consumers become more cautious and pull back on their financial commitments.

A bear market, a 20% or greater decline in stock prices,

is associated with a high recession probability over the following year.

This risk is particularly acute if the stock market downturn is accompanied by other economic stressors such as high inflation, rising interest rates, or geopolitical instability.

This could have a devastating impact on the financial security and quality of life for millions of Americans, particularly those nearing or in retirement.

Moreover, even if a full-blown recession is avoided, a prolonged period of low stock market returns can still significantly affect the economy and individual Americans.

As Vanguard's dire prophecy echoes through the corridors of power, a palpable sense of dread settles over America's economic stratum.

The once indomitable pillars of the American economy now tremble in the face of a coming storm, their foundations crumbling beneath the weight of an impending collapse.

The citizenry, long lulled into a false sense of security, have read the signs and now stare on as their dreams of prosperity and stability are reduced to dust.

The hour of reckoning draws nigh and America's fate continues to hang in the balance, poised on the precipice of a calamity it has never known.

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