Михаил Ходорковский и Максим Курников | Интервью BILD

簡介：

In a live interview that began at 0:00, Mikhail Khodorkovsky reflects on the political climate in Russia, noting the changes that followed the death of Starovoyt at 0:15 and describing how Starovoyt’s nerves were surrendered at 0:55. He discusses the aging regime and its growing repression, citing that the risks and potential gains are increasing at 3:00, and that the regime is becoming less controllable at 3:32. Khodorkovsky explains that the West understands how to topple the regime but fears the consequences at 4:15, and questions whether ministers today are truly independent at 4:40. He examines the role of internal elite repression, suggesting that Putin might be deterred by a lack of repression within security forces at 8:30, and that such repression actually strengthens the regime at 9:45. The interview covers the weakening of the regime, noting that no system of institution-building will exist under it at 14:57, and that Putin will have to navigate between China and the West at 15:38. Khodorkovsky addresses the West’s ability to enforce sanctions at 16:33, the toughest sanctions against Russia at 18:35, and the likelihood of the West returning to Russian gas at 19:20. He comments on the high mortality among top managers of oil and gas companies at 20:19, and argues that removing people from the window is not a solution for Putin at 21:00. The discussion turns to Russia’s potential to resist sanctions like Iran at 24:40, the development of the oil and gas sector in Russia and China over the past 20 years at 26:00, and the possibility of Russian oilmen finding work in China at 26:55. Khodorkovsky speaks about Trump’s role, agreeing that the deep state must be eliminated at 28:30, and that Trump did not kill Putin at 29:15, while noting that Trump considered himself weak at 32:20. He explains how Trump could influence Putin at 34:00, and that the situation in Europe is advantageous for Trump at 35:00. Khodorkovsky questions whether the West will act to change the Russian regime at 38:29, and claims his team is preparing the West for a power transition in Russia at 38:50. He discusses what will happen to Putin’s powers after his departure at 40:30, suggesting federalization and a parliamentary republic as the only option at 42:25. The interview concludes with remarks on the inevitable conflict between Putin and NATO at 45:50, a brief discussion of Zyuganov and the Communist Party at 46:56, and reflections on the unchangeability of leadership at 50:34. He notes that no one will offer a dictator a second center of power at 52:20, questions whether Putin’s children are potential heirs at 53:09, and considers whether Putin has restructured the economy toward military needs at 54:38. Finally, he predicts that autumn will bring productive talks on ending the war at 55:00, and that no one in Putin’s circle is interested in continuing the conflict at 56:44.